Chapter 3: Analyzing The List of Stocks
Page 1IN the last chapter we referred to Union Pacific stock as
the most desirable stock for active trading.
A friend of mine once made a composite chart of the
principal active stocks, for the purpose of ascertaining
which, in its daily fluctuations, followed the course of the
general market most accurately. He found Union Pacific was
what might be called the market backbone or leader, while
the others, especially Reading Railroad, frequently showed
erratic tendencies, running up or down, more or less
contrary to the general trend. Of all the issues under
inspection, none possessed the all-around steadiness and
general desirability for trading purposes displayed by Union
Pacific. But the Tape Reader, even if he decides to operate
exclusively in one stock, cannot close his eyes to what is
going on in others.
Frequent opportunities occur elsewhere. In proof of this,
take the market in the early fall of 1907: Union Pacific was
the leader throughout the rise from below 150 to 167 5/8.
For three or four days before this advance culminated, heavy
selling occurred in Reading, St. Paul, Copper, Steel and
Smelters, under cover of the strength in Union. This made
the turning point of the market as clear as daylight. One
had only to go short of Reading and await the break, or he
could have played Union with a close stop, knowing that the
whole market would collapse as soon as Union turned
downward. When the liquidation in other stocks was
completed, Union stopped advancing, the supporting orders
were withdrawn, and the "pre-election break" took place.
This amounted to over a 20 point decline in Union, with
proportionate declines in the rest of the groups' list.
The operator who was watching only Union would have been
surprised at this; but had he viewed the whole market he
must have seen what was coming. Knowing the point of
distribution, he would be on the lookout for the
accumulation which must follow, or at least the level where
support would be forthcoming. Had he been expert enough to
detect this, quick money could have been made on the
subsequent rally as well.
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